Yesterday, the US stock market closed lower by 0.3%. Even China’s stock market that has been steadily growing in recent days is trading 1.1% down in today's session. Oil, however, continues to rise, and analysts are sure that the downside momentum is over and prices have reached their lowest level. Experts at Saxo Вank also forecast that oil will advance further. At the same time, their negative outlook for the Russian ruble looks rather inconsistent.
The resumption of traffic in the Suez Canal hasn’t caused a reversal in the commodities market, and oil prices remained steady. The downside potential for oil is over. Today, crude prices gained 0.5%. The increase in US oil inventories by 3.9 million barrels also did not affect the prices although the data exceeded the forecast. Oil prices might be rising ahead of the OPEC+ meeting as investors hope that the cartel will maintain the existing production volumes. On Wednesday, Brent moved higher by 0.5% to 64 dollars 50 cents per barrel. The North Sea benchmark is expected to trade in the range of 63.50 to 66 dollars per barrel.
WTI also advanced by 0.5% and settled at 60 dollars 80 cents per barrel. The price is likely to hold in the channel between 59.00 and 62.50. Yesterday, Saxo Bank issued a negative outlook for the Russian currency. According to the forecast, the ruble will depreciate in the second quarter of 2021 against both major currencies: it may decline to the level of 90 against the US dollar, and to 96 against the euro. From the technical viewpoint, the ruble may easily drop to these targets. However, analysts admit that this forecast is relevant only in case of unlikely events. The Russian authorities will also try to prevent the ruble from falling especially ahead of election this autumn. The reserves of the Central Bank of Russian are enough to withstand the weakness of the national currency. Meanwhile, the US dollar has been gaining ground across the board, including the dollar/ruble pair. Today, the ruble was trading at 75.90 against the greenback. The pair has reached a local low at 75.40 and is likely to hold in the range of 75.40 to 76.60 rubles per dollar. The European currency is also under pressure from a stronger US dollar that has grown against the basket of other majors. The euro is depreciating more against the ruble compared to the dollar as it has been declining since March 22. This downtrend still continues. Today, the euro/ruble pair was trading at 88.80. The expected price channel for the pair is seen between 87.50 and 89.50 rubles per euro. Despite a fall in the US stock market by 0.3% and a rise in the US Treasury yields to 1.7%, the recovery of the US economy offsets the negative sentiment. In addition, the rapid pace of vaccination against Covid-19 encourages the markets. Today, investors are looking ahead to the jobs report from the US that is due at 12:15 GMT. In case the data is strong, US stock indices are likely to hit new highs together with oil prices. Meanwhile, Europe also sees some positive changes that may help the euro strengthen in the near term: GDP in the UK for the fourth quarter of 2020 declined less than expected by 7.3% instead of the estimated 7.8%. In addition, the vaccination rate is increasing; Germany released positive data on the unemployment rate for February which turned out to be 4.6.%.

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