Get my new Bitcoin book:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B08RX8Q4ZQ

In this video, I discuss whether this Bitcoin cycle will be different (supercycle and much higher prices), or not different (deep bear market like the last 2 cycles).

Arguments in favor of a Bitcoin Supercycle:

1) This bull market is mostly being driven by institutional accumulation of Bitcoin by investors with long-time horizons.

2) Bitcoin on-ramps and off-ramps are much more widely available and user-friendly than in 2017. The same goes for Bitcoin custody and storage.

3) The narrative around Bitcoin has coalesced around Bitcoin as digital gold, so there is no hard fork civil war, as there was in 2017.

4) Bitcoin has Wall Street support and banking regulator approval this time around. Fears of a government ban are unfounded.

5) There is no longer the need to take profits by selling your Bitcoin. Sophisticated investors will never sell, but will rather borrow against their Bitcoin holdings. This will create less selling pressure than in 2017.

6) The macro backdrop of extreme central bank money printing was not present in 2017, but is present today and will continue for the foreseeable future. This makes the need for something like digital gold more pressing than every before.

The net result is that we could see much, much higher Bitcoin prices this time around ($500,000 to $1 million), with only a very shallow bear market with a 10-20% pullback instead of a 80-90% pullback.

Arguments in favor of a bear market:

1) This time is usually NOT different.

2) Bitcoin long-term investors may over-leverage themselves by borrowing against their Bitcoin and using the proceeds to buy even more Bitcoin. If Bitcoin's price pulls back enough, there could be massive margin calls and forced liquidations.

I believe it is too difficult to try to time this cycle's top. We may be on the cusp of hyperbitcoinization, combined with institutional dip buyers and strong hands, which means that we may have a very mild bear market, or none at all.

For this reason, I will not sell my Bitcoin this time around. I plan on never selling it, but rather borrowing against it after it hits $1 million per Bitcoin.

Not investment advice! Consult a financial advisor.

Bitcoin price history with halvings:
https://www.coinmama.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/ELRjvR1U0AAUtnn.png-large.png

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1357638054815621122/photo/1

Bitcoin S2F cross asset model:
https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/bitcoin-stock-to-flow-cross-asset-model-50d260feed12

Bitcoin going to $288,000:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxFKsVyUNPg&ab_channel=TraderUniversity

The ultimate guide to Bitcoin loans:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uvgg3j_uiVw&ab_channel=TraderUniversity

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I am not being paid or otherwise compensated by any company or cryptocurrency project that I mention in my videos.

My opinion is not for sale. Please do not contact me with any affiliate or advertising deals.

#Bitcoin
#BitcoinPrice

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