The u s experiencing co.virus resurgence group
There are several reasons that the U.S is experiencing a resurgence, for example, an epidemic will run its course and vanish on its own, without intervention, but measures that reduce that density collectively called social distancing can both bring it to an end sooner, and reduce the number of causalities. You can think of the area under the epidemic curve as reflecting the total amount of misery that it incurs. Now, picture the difference in size of that area when the curve is high and broad that is without intervention and when it is low and narrow with intervention. That is potentially the difference between an overwhelmed public health infrastructure, where patients cant get treated, doctors and nurses are pushed beyond exhaustion and de bodies accumulate in morgues, and a functioning system that, though stretched to its limit, is still managing the flux of the sick. What we have been seeing is an increased tting capacity over the past couple of months, which will show an increase in positive cases per capita but more recently within the past few weeks we are seeing an influx of hospitalizations. Another explanation which I believe is causing a resurgence or seco.nd wave is a couple of weeks ago the virus had a mutation S D614G, which caused the virus to become more infectious. Sometime in the middle of January, the mutation S D614G allowed the virus to become more infectious. It does mean its more lethal. It makes it about 10X more infectious than the original Han strain which was found in Wuhan. This strain is referred to as the European Italian and Spanish strain. And this is what the Scripp Institute in a recent study revealed. The data in the study of D614G mutation raises interting qutions about the natural history of SARS CoV 2 as it moved presumably from horseshoe bats to humans. It also hints towards the severity of COVID 19. If we observe the timeline in which this mutation took place, it was around the time that mass protts erupted in America and the rt of the world. The American Institute for Ecomic research noted, Many of the overly coident planners who hatched this disaster are hunkered down in hiding. People are unlikely ever to hold the mainstream media in high regard. Sowing the seeds of hatred and whipping up already anxious populations into a frenzy over a fabricated narrative racism of a single persons deh means many more lives that should have mattered will not only be lost to senseless violence but also to COVID 19. The article coludes pessimistically, The be laid plans inspired by myopic modelers, eschewing of expert opinions of dissident scientists, disregarding of essential rights, fueled by media fabrications and irresponsibility, imposed by governments at all levels. Its a new chapter of The Road to Serfdom. By the process of elimination, an increase in tting capacity does not necessarily increase the number of hospitalizations. The sudden surges of cases we are seeing is because of the virus mutation S D614G making it more infectious and lethal. It is timated the reproductive number of SARS CoV 2 is likely to be from 1.4 to 6.5, with a mean of 3.3 Liu et al., 2020. This is not just a measure of the inherent infectiousness of a disease. It also depends on other factors, including the rate of co.ntact within a population and the duration of the infectious period. Its a situation dependent value, so in one city the R0 might be higher and in another lower. It also assumes that the entire population is susceptible to the disease. Around the same time Germany also saw a sudden surge in the number of cases, particularly in Gütersloh and in other towns such as Göttingen, where a tower block is in quarantine, Germany will probably have a seco.nd wave if they cannot co.ntrol the outbreak and so will the rt of Europe. A reproduction rate, or R, of 3.30 means that 100 people who co.ntracted the virus infect, on average, 330 others. Compare this rate to 2.76 on Tue 23, 1.79 on Sun 21 and 1.06 on Fri 19 in Germany. It is becoming self evident that the virus is more infectious.