Steven Pifer: Where is Russia Heading in 2020?

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Published Jul 30, 2020

Over the past several years, Russia has seemed a country on the rise globally, with President Vladimir Putin well on his way to lengthening his time in power. On July 1 a popular referendum is slated to approve constitutional amendments that will allow Putin to remain in office until 2036, while patriotic fervor is at its peak with ongoing celebrations of the 75th anniversary of the Soviet victory in WW II. Abroad, Putin has revived Russian influence in places like Syria, exercised military might in Ukraine among other countries in Russia's "near abroad," and developed sophisticated information warfare tactics to exercise political leverage in numerous countries, most significantly the United States.

However, Putin also faces some serious headwinds with COVID 19. The virus's economic impact in Russia plus the collapse of oil prices and the precipitous decline in global demand is driving the Russian economy into recession. The IMF predicts it will contract by 5.5% this year. Putin also faces serious criticism over his handling of the COVID 19 health crisis and growing anxiety over the capacity of Russia’s health care infrastructure to cope. Russia’s total number of reported COVID 19 cases has exceeded six hundred thousand and continues to rise according to the Johns Hopkins global data, ranking the country third, behind only the US and Brazil. With the world’s attention on the pandemic, can Putin emerge stronger from this crisis and what can we expect from Russia in the near term? Is resolution a possibility with Ukraine or will there be continued conflict? Will Russia meddle in the upcoming US elections or in other places around the world? How well is the Russian economy likely to fare after the pandemic? What are the prospects for US-Russia relations at a time when arms control agreements are being abandoned?

SPEAKER:
Steven Pifer
William Perry Research Fellow, Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation; Nonresident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution

MODERATOR:
Markos Kounalakis
Visiting Fellow, Hoover Institution

This event is presented by World Affairs in partnership with:
The Pacific Council on International Policy

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